The National Weather Service has documented at least 18 confirmed tornadoes touching down in New York so far this month — a record number.
Those tornadoes have devastated several cities across upstate New York, destroying homes, toppling power lines, and displacing dozens of families. They’ve also brought into sharp relief the damage tornadoes can cause — including one death in the village of Canastota — and the urgent challenge of cleaning up and restoring power after the worst is over.
In the storms' aftermath, many are now asking the same question: Are tornadoes expected to happen more frequently in upstate New York — and what role, if any, does climate change play?
There’s no easy answer, according to climatologists and meteorologists who track and study severe weather.
In part, that’s because the rise in tornadoes has corresponded with advancements in forecasting technology, as well as the rise of smartphones and social media, according to David Nicosia, the meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service’s Binghamton office.
“We're documenting more, you're going to see an uptick,” said Nicosia. But recording more tornadoes doesn’t necessarily mean more tornadoes are actually happening, he added.
Instead, it primarily means historical data likely has a larger gap between the number of tornadoes that happened and the number that were documented. “It just makes it hard to compare,” said Nicosia.
Scientists are also still trying to figure out whether climate change has an impact on tornadoes. So far that research remains inconclusive, in large part because of a lack of consistent data.
In the fifth U.S. National Climate Assessment, released last year, researchers determined that while the average number of tornadoes nationally each year has remained mostly consistent, some tornado patterns appear to have shifted. Those findings include that tornado outbreaks have become more frequent, tornado power has increased, and that the usual area where tornadoes are expected, dubbed “Tornado Alley”, has shifted eastward.
That indicates warmer average temperatures may influence tornados. Yet, though scientists have found that climate change has made severe storms and heat waves worse, they have not been able to draw that same link to tornadoes.
What remains clear is that tornadoes can pose a severe risk — even in New York, where many residents aren’t used to facing them, said Nicosia.
“The take-home point is we are vulnerable to tornadoes in upstate New York. We get tornadoes here,” said Nicosia. “People need to know that, and they need to take tornado warnings very seriously.”
Weathering the storm
Perhaps no town in New York has felt this summer’s storm devastation more severely than Rome, a city of just over 30,000 people in the Mohawk Valley, hit by an EF2 tornado on July 16. Wind speeds reached over 130 miles per hour, tearing the steeple off of a landmark downtown church and displacing dozens of families.
Butch Lavine, 67, had been in the bathroom of his home in the South Rome neighborhood when he said the walls started vibrating and loud noises began to ring outside.
“We had virtually no warning,” said Lavine, standing on his front stoop Friday, three days after the storm. He remembered a tornado alarm sounding on his phone just 30-seconds before the storm hit.
While utility crews worked down the street to fix power lines and restore electricity, the contents of his fridge had begun to turn bad, and debris from fallen trees and damaged homes remained scattered over the roads. The tornado had left Lavine’s neighborhood destroyed, tearing siding off homes, crushing trees on top of cars, and toppling the outer brick wall of a nearby auto repair shop.
Lavine worried most for his great grandchildren, four-year-old Clea and seven-year-old Carson. They lived across the street in Lavine’s daughter’s home — one of the worst-hit houses on the block. During the storm, the children had huddled in their basement with their mother, grandmother and cousins. When they emerged, the house looked contorted, its roof torn off and the towering tree in the front yard bent in half.
In the days since then, the children have stayed with their mother at a nearby hotel, supported by the Red Cross, which has coordinated resourced for impacted families with the county. Lavine said their house had been condemned, and he’s unsure where the children will go in the coming days and weeks as the community works to rebuild.
In the meantime, Lavine has decided to remain in his house, even with its roof dented and some windows shattered. In part, he said he stuck around through the worst of the devastation to care for the family’s animals — a dog, three cats, and a litter of five kittens born just two days before the tornado hit.
After living in Rome nearly all his life, Lavine said he’d never experienced a storm so powerful and dangerous. Nor did he think he ever would.
“Sixty-seven years, never seen it,” said Lavine. “This is unbelievable.”
Working to rebuild
On Saturday, Governor Kathy Hochul requested an emergency declaration from President Biden to support recovery operations in over a dozen New York counties following the string of severe weather events. That would authorize the Federal Emergency Management Agency to provide reimbursement for debris removal and other services.
“We must give our communities the support they need to recover,” Hochul said in a statement. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York have both urged FEMA to approve Hochul's request.
The work to rebuild is daunting for many residents whose homes and businesses were destroyed by tornadoes. Those include Lisa Whitman, who owns a rental property in South Rome that was severely damaged in the storm. Where there was once a steeped and shingled roof now lies a gaping hole, covered in a tarp.
Whitman’s tenants have moved out, returning only to collect some belongings. Now, she and her husband are waiting to hear if the house is condemned and needs to be demolished. Then they’ll have to decide whether to try to rebuild.
“We just really have to weigh the pros and cons at this point,” said Whitman. “We're looking at least a year out before things get moving again, so it’s very overwhelming.”
In the meantime, local nonprofits are stepping in to provide help. On a clear, sunny afternoon just a few days after the tornado hit Rome, volunteers grilled hot dogs and handed out hygiene supplies downtown. Staff from the local library read books to kids while the social services office set up a table to help residents access more resources.
The outpouring of community support has been uplifting as many struggle to rebuild, said Melissa Roys, executive director of the local nonprofit Connected Community Schools, which has organized the daily meals.
“It not only was just devastating physically and in the community, but mentally and emotionally,” said Roys. “This is new to us. This isn't a crisis we would typically have to respond to.”
Staying prepared
As warning after warning over extreme weather has sounded in some parts of upstate New York, state officials have advised residents on what to do to stay safe.
In TV interviews and press releases, Governor Hochul has repeated several tips of what to do in an extreme weather situation. Those include seeking sturdy shelter immediately, and staying in a basement or interior room, like a closet, on a low floor, away from windows. Getting under something sturdy, like a mattress, can help keep you safe too. If getting indoors is not possible, lie flat in a ditch or low spot with your hands shielding your head.
Residents are also advised not to stay in vehicles and mobile homes during a tornado or severe weather, as both can be tossed around by wind and become dangerous. During flash flooding, never attempt to drive on a flooded road.
The devastation this month has underscored how risky severe weather can become — and how important it is to have an emergency plan in place, said Lisa Smith, executive director of the Red Cross in central and northern New York.
“We have to be prepared,” said Smith. “We’re going to be faced with this going forward.”